Long Island Vineyards Could See Early Bud Break in 2012

Photo Courtesy of Bedell Cellars

By Lenn Thompson, Executive Editor

The earliest anyone can remember seeing bud break in Long Island vineyards was mid-April in 2010 -- a vintage that ended up being one of the longest and warmest on record. Bud break in 2010 was about two weeks earlier than average.

But, after a mild winter and with temperatures currently in the upper-50s and 60s this week -- Long Island vineyards could see bud break even earlier in 2012. 

"The potential for an early bud break this year appears higher than normal. If the weather continues to trend the way it has over the winter season it is increasingly likely that an early bud break will occur," said David Page of Shinn Estate Vineyards, where bud break occurred on April 17 in 2010.

A mild winter and this current string of warm weather doesn't necessarily mean early bud break, however.

According to Alice Wise Sr. Resource Educator for the viticulture program at Cornell Cooperative Extension of Suffolk County bud break is "related to a certain number of days with the average temperatures greater than 50 degrees Fahrenheit. But there is no magic formula to predict when it will occur. There are likely other physiological processes at play as well. An early bud break is a possibility but it is difficult to predict. Depends on the weather over the next month."

Channing Daughters Winery partner and CEO -- and soil scientist -- Larry Perrine echoes that wait-and-see approach. "Are we at risk for an earlier bud break in 2012?  Only the next 3 weeks or so will tell," said in an email yesterday, adding "However, with sustained warmer than average temperatures, as we are having, bud break can be up to two weeks earlier than average."

In and of itself, early bud break isn't a problem. In fact, some of the earliest bud breaks have occurred in years like 2007 and 2010, considered among the region's best. An early start offers the potential for a long, even ripening process. It also mitigates the impact less-than-optimal growing conditions later in the season can have on the overall vintage.

That's the bright side of early bud break. The risk is hard frost in the spring -- after bud break -- which could significantly damage buds and just-forming leaves -- greatly reducing crop size. Entire blocks or even vineyards could be lost. 

For now, Rich Olsen-Harbich, winemaker at Bedell Cellars, is focusing on the positive possibilities, saying "The beauty of eastern Long Island is that we rarely experience frost problems. That’s one of the big reasons we’re so successful growing wine grapes here – our spring temperatures usually prevent that from happening."

A lot can happen after bud break, but Olsen-Harbich also reminds us that it's still very early and a lot can happen between now and when buds open. "I’ve also seen things warm up early only to be set back with weeks of cold April weather. One thing I do know is that there no two years are the same on the North Fork. That’s what makes it so challenging, interesting and exciting to grow grapes here. As for this year?  We’ll see!"

 

Comments

[Edward Lovaas]

I know the East Coast has it's weather challenges however it is not the only place. In other regions they have frost every year and have to manage it. They also grow grapes that are a challenge to grow like Zinfandel, Grenache, Nebbiolo ect. LI is mostly Chardonnay and Merlot and honestly what regions don't grow a Chardonnay and Merlot. We should all hope we do not get an early bud break because a frost would put a low yield region like this at about a ton an acre.

[Leslie Howard]

I know that the water surrounding us will buffer the air temperature. We have a very uniqe place here on Long Island. The sense of place is everything, and to preserve that harmony into wine is key.

[Steve]

This is a complex issue with many variables involved, as stated above early bud break can be a dual edged sword, there's also bound to be more insect pressure this season since we didn't freeze the ground hard or long enough to purge the critters down there, and now depending on the weather disease pressure could be higher than normal too. I think the general consensus is that vineyard managers on the Island will have their work cut out for them this season, as they often do.

[Evan Dawson]

Seems that everyone connected to viticulture wants to say, "Yes, but..." when it comes to the possibility of early bud break. How about this? For the next 10 days, it won't get below 50 degrees up here. Daily high will be at least 70 every day, and there's a solid chance we'll see 80+ for at least three days next week. That's not one day of warmth. That's record warmth after five months of record warmth. If we don't see early bud break in 2012, we never will. The question becomes, will it be a record? In 2010, growers thought they were seeing things that would not be repeated in their lifetimes. And here we are. What a world.

[Steve]

Let's say early bud break is virtually guaranteed at this point. That still doesn't make 2012 a record vintage. Many growers have seen bud break at around April 20th, in order for that to carry into a block buster vintage the weather has to play nice all summer and at least provide pockets of harvesting opportunities in the fall. Think of it like a perfect game in baseball, of course it depends on the first game and every game after but even when all the momentum is rolling the right way, no one wants to jinx it.